Polls by Politico suggest a Labor landslide: it leads the Conservatives by 22 percent. A survey yesterday showed that the party will come in third place if the election is held.
The West Lancashire by-election result, along with other recent results, could instead lead to a hung parliament or a narrow general election.
Keir Starmer’s party swing in the seat was 10.5 per cent. It was the same at Stretchford and Urmston last December. At Chester City earlier that month, it was 13.7. In Wakefield last June it was 13.6 per cent.
“YouGov’s Patrick English calculated that a 13 per cent swing to Labor would be needed at the next election to win a majority,” John Rentoul wrote in his conclusion.
However, it could be that because all three seats are now firmly in the Labor column, the turnout is lower than in the Tory-Labor fringe – and swings in such seats will be higher.
Sage Sunak’s detractors are certainly taking that view. Peter Cruddas Tweet That West Lancashire “worst ever” result for the Conservatives is consistent with the Britain Electors poll which finds That would reduce them to 138 seats at present.
Nevertheless, Chester City was Conservative-held between 2010 and 2014. And a lesson can be drawn from the by-elections of the mid-1990s, when Tony Blair led the Labor Party.
In the 1994 Dudley North by-election it had a swing of 29.2 from the Tories. One of the same year at Dagenham, 23.1. One in 1996 in South East Staffordshire, 22.1.
The by-election was prompted by Cooper’s resignation from parliament to become chairman of Mercy Care NHS Foundation Trust in the wake of a neo-Nazi plot to assassinate him.